Tarik Skubal is getting ready to hold meetings with six organizations as the MLB winter period begins, with the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres among the franchises chasing the standout hurler.
Even with the possibility of a work stoppage in December, multiple front offices have made clear they plan to handle the winter as they normally would. Still, the ambiguity regarding baseball’s upcoming collective bargaining agreement may heavily influence free agency and the market for elite talent.
Tarik Skubal’s free agency draws six MLB clubs
The Mets, Dodgers, and Padres are part of a group of six organizations set to sit down with Skubal, according to an individual briefed on the talks who spoke with The Associated Press under the condition of anonymity. The names of the remaining three clubs have not been made public.
Skubal is arriving after an impressive campaign in which he posted a 12-7 win-loss record and a 2.72 ERA over 26 starts split between Detroit and Los Angeles. The Dodgers landed him on August 2 in a trade involving three prospects, slotting him into a rotation that already featured Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The left-hander has the potential to exceed Yamamoto’s $325 million, 12-year deal, signed with the Dodgers in 2024, and become the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history.
Skubal also sits atop a fairly thin free-agent group that features Freddy Peralta, Michael King, Seiya Suzuki, and Randy Arozarena.
MLB lockout threat leaves offseason uncertain
The existing collective bargaining agreement is set to run out at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1, with team owners anticipated to launch another work stoppage right after. That would represent the 10th labour conflict in MLB since 1972.
Nonetheless, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns maintains his organization is not altering its plan.
“From my perspective, I look at this as a business-as-usual offseason until they tell us otherwise,” Stearns said. He added that the Mets plan to proceed as if they have a complete offseason in front of them, believing that to be the soundest way to handle their preparations.
MLB has put forward a hard salary cap of $258.2 million for 2028, along with a minimum payroll of $180.2 million. Both numbers would be determined using luxury tax payrolls and players’ average annual contract values.
Under the proposal, clubs could initially spend as little as 90% of the minimum in 2028, amounting to $162.18 million, as long as they reach the full floor across a three-year span.
According to MLB, eight franchises would have to reduce their current payrolls by a combined $528 million to comply with the proposed ceiling. Those clubs are Boston, the Chicago Cubs, the Dodgers, the Yankees, the Mets, Philadelphia, San Diego, and Toronto.
Free-agent market confronts salary cap worries
The proposed changes have sparked concerns among agents that the prospect of a salary cap might deter teams from making significant commitments during the present offseason.
Players, for their part, have strongly resisted the introduction of a cap and pledged to fight one for as long as required. Their stance mirrors the resolve displayed during the 7.5-month strike in 1994 and 1995, which led to the first cancellation of the World Series in 90 years.
A fresh labour conflict would also trigger an immediate freeze on trades and free-agent signings, as occurred during the 99-day lockout between 2021 and 2022.
The volume of activity just before that earlier stoppage shows what could be at stake. On the day before the lockout started, MLB announced 27 contracts worth more than $1.4 billion combined.
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller conceded that the possibility of a different financial system must be taken into account, even though forecasting its eventual shape remains difficult.
“We’ve been kind of doing what we do every offseason and put ourselves in position to make decisions,” Preller said.
He explained that San Diego would stay ready to act if an opportunity made sense in both the short and long term, rather than letting uncertainty govern every decision.
Dodgers, Yankees, and Angels set out offseason intentions
The Dodgers are likewise evaluating their long-term roster approach as they weigh possible moves. General manager Brandon Gomes emphasized the importance of keeping a competitive squad without undermining the organization’s ability to stay successful over an extended period.
He said the front office wants to steer clear of decisions that could cause a slowdown or disrupt what it hopes will be a prolonged stretch of contention.
The Yankees are adopting an equally practical stance. General manager Brian Cashman confirmed that owner Hal Steinbrenner had given him a budget, with talks involving other teams and agents already in progress.
Cashman said the organization was collecting information about which opportunities might be available and would keep planning around the resources at its disposal.
The Los Angeles Angels, though, may be more cautious with major offseason decisions because of the proposed ownership change. The franchise announced on September 1 that Arte Moreno had agreed to sell the club to Kroenke Sports and Entertainment.
The prospective new ownership group controls the Los Angeles Rams, the Arsenal, the Denver Nuggets, the Colorado Avalanche, and the Colorado Rapids. The transaction is still subject to MLB approval, with no closing date announced.
Interim general manager John Mozeliak explained that his immediate priority was to prepare the organization for the arrival of new leadership.
He intends to assess the trade market, identify which players other teams might be willing to move, and evaluate potential free-agent targets. The aim is to leave the incoming decision-makers with the flexibility to determine the club’s direction once the ownership transition is completed.