This Buffalo–Montreal series arrives after two teams finished close in the standings and split their regular-season meetings, including a nearly even exchange of wins in each arena and a combined goal tally that ended level.
Although comparisons are being made to Montreal’s previous round against Tampa Bay, the situations are not identical. The Canadiens and Lightning had just come through a tightly contested series that set a tone, while Montreal and Buffalo last met in January, meaning both sides have since changed significantly.
At that time, Montreal was producing high-scoring hockey while covering up defensive issues, whereas Buffalo was scoring heavily without obvious struggles. Since then, both clubs have reshaped into more playoff-ready versions of themselves.
Buffalo reached 109 points and secured its first postseason appearance since Barack Obama’s early presidency, while Montreal finished with 106 points and scored 279 goals, ranking seventh in the league.
Offence from leading players must rise
One of the clearest deciding factors will be production from top forwards. Against Tampa Bay, Montreal’s leading group — Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Ivan Demidov, and Juraj Slafkovsky — struggled to consistently generate offence, combining for only a small number of goals in the final stretch of that series, aside from Slafkovsky’s earlier hat trick.
Tampa’s defensive structure, supported by strong checking play from several key Lightning forwards and defencemen, successfully limited Montreal’s main attacking threats. That level of containment may be harder to replicate against Buffalo.
The Sabres do feature strong two-way players, including Alex Tuch, and a more flexible defensive group than Tampa, but they do not carry the same defensive reputation as the Lightning lineup that previously frustrated Montreal.
Because depth scoring on both sides is expected to be relatively balanced, the difference may come from whether Montreal’s top offensive players outperform Buffalo’s best forwards over the course of the series.
Injuries and roster availability shaping momentum
Health remains a central factor, as it often does in playoff series. Montreal emerged from its previous round without major new setbacks and even regained defenceman Noah Dobson, who returned after missing time with a hand injury and reinforced the team’s depth.
Buffalo, meanwhile, has concerns regarding depth availability. Sam Carrick has been dealing with an arm injury and was initially expected to miss the entire second round, though his recovery has improved, and he has returned to practice in a non-contact capacity.
His possible return would be important, particularly given Buffalo’s struggles in the faceoff circle during the previous round, where they ranked near the bottom among playoff teams, while Montreal finished among the best in that category. Carrick has been strong in faceoffs over recent seasons, adding value if he becomes available.
The Sabres are also expected to be without Noah Ostlund, who contributed offensively during the regular season and early playoff action before suffering an injury early in a game. His absence is viewed as a meaningful loss due to his versatility and playmaking ability, even if Buffalo retains depth in his position group.
Goaltending as the deciding edge
The final and perhaps most decisive element is goaltending. Both teams enter the series with netminders coming off strong performances against elite opposition.
Montreal will rely on Jakub Dobes, who has been among the league’s top goaltenders in goals saved above expected over the past two months and delivered strong performances in the previous round, including a standout Game 7 effort.
Buffalo counters with Alex Lyon, who entered during the first round and produced strong underlying numbers across his appearances, including outperforming expectations in goals saved above expected while helping eliminate Boston’s goaltending advantage.
Dobes, in particular, has been described internally as a competitor who elevates his play in high-pressure situations, and Montreal’s coaching staff has already credited him with carrying games when needed.
If he maintains that level, Montreal believes it gives them a chance in every game of the series, but neither team can realistically expect to win without consistent high-level performances from its goaltender.