Match preview: Portugal vs Croatia

Portugal head into their World Cup 2026 last-32 tie against Croatia in Toronto with a place in the last 16 at stake after finishing second in Group K. Their group campaign included a draw with DR Congo, a draw with Colombia, and a commanding 5-0 win over Uzbekistan, which was enough to secure progression.

Roberto Martínez’s squad remain unbeaten so far in the tournament, recording one victory and two draws. However, they were unable to top their group and now face a knockout test against Croatia in a match that could define their campaign.

Croatia, meanwhile, reached this stage after finishing second in Group L. Their tournament began with a 4-2 defeat to England, but they recovered with a 1-0 win over Panama and a 2-1 success against Ghana to move into the knockout phase.

Portugal’s form, control and attacking concerns

Portugal produced record passing numbers during the group stage, completing 1,690 passes and averaging 62.5% possession, their highest figure at a World Cup. Despite that dominance in control, their attacking output was limited compared to previous tournaments.

They registered 37 shots and 12 on target across the group phase, which is among their lowest attacking returns in recent World Cup history. In 2018, only fewer attempts and shots on target were recorded for them than in this edition’s opening stage.

Cristiano Ronaldo, now 41, scored twice against Uzbekistan but failed to find the net in the draws with DR Congo and Colombia. If he features against Croatia, it would be his ninth World Cup knockout appearance, though he has never scored in any of his previous eight, despite 29 attempts in such matches.

Midfielder Vitinha has been central to Portugal’s build-up play, completing 270 passes in the group stage. His performance against Colombia stood out, as he completed all 54 of his passes, matching the record for a midfielder in a World Cup match with perfect accuracy.

Last 5 Portugal matches stats

Croatia’s recovery and tournament record

Croatia’s campaign started with a setback against England, where they were level at 2-2 before eventually losing 4-2. They responded strongly by beating Panama 1-0 and Ghana 2-1, securing their place in the knockout rounds.

Zlatko Dalić’s side now aim to win three consecutive matches at a major tournament for the first time since their run to the 2018 World Cup final. Their consistency in reaching this stage continues, as this is their fourth appearance in the knockout phase of the competition.

The Croatian team also carries individual milestones into the match. Luka Modrić could reach 23 World Cup appearances, placing him among the competition’s most experienced players, alongside figures such as Paolo Maldini and Manuel Neuer.

Last 5 Croatia matches stats

Historical edge and standout statistics

Portugal holds a strong historical record against Croatia, with seven wins, two draws, and only one defeat in ten meetings. In competitive matches, Portugal are unbeaten across six encounters, winning five and drawing one.

Croatia’s recent record against European opponents at the World Cup has been less positive. After strong early results in past editions, they have gone three matches without a win in such fixtures, starting from the 2018 final defeat to France, followed by a draw with Belgium in 2022 and a loss to England in this tournament’s opening round.

The match also carries significant individual milestones, as Cristiano Ronaldo could extend his World Cup appearance tally to 25, while only Lionel Messi, Lothar Matthäus, Miroslav Klose, and Ronaldo himself would be above Luka Modrić if he plays.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Portugal come into this last-32 clash as slight favourites, largely due to their strong historical record against Croatia and their unbeaten run in the group stage. Croatia, however, arrive with confidence after recovering from an opening defeat to England and securing their place in the knockout rounds with two wins.

Roberto Martínez’s side have dominated possession throughout the tournament and produced record passing numbers, but they have struggled to convert control into clear attacking output. Cristiano Ronaldo’s lack of goals in World Cup knockout matches adds an extra layer of pressure, even after his group-stage brace against Uzbekistan. Croatia’s ability to reach and progress through knockout rounds in previous World Cups highlights their resilience in these moments.

The match is likely to be tight and tactically disciplined, with Portugal expected to control the ball while Croatia looks to exploit transitions. Both teams have shown inconsistency in attack, which could make chances limited and margins very fine. Croatia’s experience and Portugal’s control suggest a closely fought contest that may be decided by individual moments.

Prediction: Portugal 2-1 Croatia

Expected outcome: A narrow Portugal victory in a competitive match where their possession and technical quality eventually edge out Croatia’s organised and resilient approach, securing their place in the last 16.