Match preview: Brazil vs Norway

Brazil and Norway will meet on Sunday for a place in the World Cup quarter-finals, with Carlo Ancelotti’s side looking to build on a dramatic victory over Japan in the previous round. The five-time world champions needed a late goal from Gabriel Martinelli to complete a 2-1 comeback after Casemiro had cancelled out Kaishu Sano’s opener in Houston.

Norway also required a late winner to progress, as Erling Haaland struck in the 86th minute to secure a 2-1 success over Ivory Coast. That result delivered the country’s first-ever victory in a World Cup knockout match and extended an already memorable tournament for Ståle Solbakken’s team.

Both nations now head into the last 16 after narrow wins, but the upcoming encounter in New Jersey presents a significantly tougher challenge, with a place among the final eight at stake.

Brazil searching for greater attacking rhythm

Although Brazil have reached the knockout stages, Ancelotti may still want to see more from his forwards. His team have attempted 60 shots across four matches, averaging 15.0 per game, making it their second-lowest figure at a single World Cup, ahead of only the 1998 campaign.

At the same time, Brazil’s opportunities have been of notably high quality. Their expected goals per shot stands at 0.16, the highest they have recorded during the period covered by these statistics, suggesting they are creating better chances despite taking fewer attempts.

Bruno Guimarães has been one of Brazil’s standout performers, providing the assist for Martinelli’s winner against Japan to move onto four assists at the tournament. Since 1966, only Pelé has managed more assists for Brazil in a single World Cup edition, recording six in 1970.

Victory over Norway would also give Brazil a fourth consecutive World Cup win, something they have not achieved since an 11-match winning sequence spanning the 2002 and 2006 tournaments. History also favours the South Americans in this round, as they have advanced from nine of their previous 10 last-16 matches, with only a 1-0 defeat to Argentina in 1990 preventing a perfect record.

Last 5 Brazil matches stats

Norway relying on Haaland’s remarkable form

Norway continue to impress thanks largely to Haaland, whose decisive goal against Ivory Coast extended his scoring streak to 13 straight competitive international appearances. During that run, the striker has found the net 25 times and now has the chance to become only the eighth European player to score in each of his first four World Cup matches.

If he scores again, Haaland would also become the first European footballer to achieve that feat since Christian Vieri did so for Italy in 1998. Norway’s attacking threat is further strengthened by Martin Ødegaard, who created Antonio Nusa’s goal in the previous round.

Ødegaard could make history by registering an assist in each of his first four World Cup appearances. He would also become only the third player on record to produce assists in four consecutive matches at the finals after Thomas Häßler in 1994 and Zico in 1982.

Despite their attacking success, Norway has defensive concerns. They have both scored and conceded in all four matches at this tournament, producing 10 goals while allowing eight. Solbakken will hope his team can be more solid against the pace and quality of Vinícius Júnior and Matheus Cunha.

Last 5 Norway matches stats

Previous meetings and historical trends

Norway have enjoyed the better record in this fixture, remaining unbeaten across the four previous meetings with Brazil by winning twice and drawing twice. Their most memorable encounter came at the 1998 World Cup, where the Scandinavians claimed a 2-1 victory.

Brazil also faces an unwanted trend against European opposition in the knockout stages. Since defeating Germany in the 2002 World Cup final, they have been eliminated in each of their last six knockout matches against teams from Europe.

Those exits came against France in the 2006 quarter-finals, the Netherlands in the 2010 quarter-finals, Germany in the 2014 semi-finals, the Netherlands again in the 2014 third-place play-off, Belgium in the 2018 quarter-finals, and Croatia in the 2022 quarter-finals.

Norway’s run at this tournament has already rewritten parts of their history. Before 2026, they had played only two knockout matches at major tournaments, losing both to Italy in 1938 and 1998, while three of the country’s six victories at major tournaments have now come during this World Cup. Another notable statistic is that Norway have both scored and conceded in each of their first four matches, putting them on course to join a short list of nations to do so in their opening five games of a single World Cup edition.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Brazil enter this last-16 encounter as slight favourites because of their greater World Cup pedigree and consistent record in knockout matches, but Norway have already shown they are capable of troubling elite opposition. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have not been at their attacking best, though the quality of the chances they are creating suggests they remain a major threat, while Bruno Guimarães’ creativity and Gabriel Martinelli’s confidence after his late winner could prove decisive. Norway, meanwhile, possess one of the tournament’s most dangerous forwards in Erling Haaland, whose remarkable international scoring streak gives them every chance of causing an upset, especially with Martin Ødegaard supplying opportunities. Brazil is likely to dominate possession, but Norway’s direct attacking approach and ability to score consistently should ensure a closely contested match. The key battle may be whether Brazil can finally convert their superiority into goals while limiting Haaland’s influence.

Prediction: Brazil 2-1 Norway

Expected outcome: A closely fought contest in which Brazil’s greater tournament experience and ability to create high-quality chances ultimately prove decisive, sending them into the quarter-finals. Norway is expected to threaten throughout, particularly through Haaland, and should make Brazil work for victory. While Brazil has the edge on balance, Norway’s attacking form means extra time or even an upset cannot be completely ruled out.